Australia’s new truck market has continued to cool through 2026, with sales across every major truck and heavy van segment lower at the end of the September quarter.
The latest T-Mark data from the Truck Industry Council (TIC) shows 29,233 trucks and heavy vans were sold during the first nine months of 2026, down 13.3 per cent – or 4,494 vehicles – compared with the same period in 2025. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
Despite the decline, the market remains relatively strong when viewed over a longer timeframe. TIC says 2026 is currently tracking towards being the fifth or sixth-best year on record, suggesting the current slowdown follows several years of historically high demand rather than representing a collapse in the market. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
For fleet operators and suppliers, however, the figures point to a clear reduction in new vehicle investment as operating costs and broader economic conditions influence replacement decisions.
September confirms the slowdown
The third quarter produced 9,707 truck and van sales, making it the sixth strongest September quarter on record, but sales were 14.8 per cent below the corresponding period in 2025.
September itself followed the same pattern. A total of 3,362 heavy vehicles were sold during the month, down 13.3 per cent compared with September 2025. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
Importantly, the weakness is not confined to one part of the market. Sales were down across all truck and van segments during September.
The severity of the decline, however, varies significantly by vehicle class.
Heavy Duty proves most resilient
Heavy Duty continues to be the strongest-performing truck segment in the softer market.
During the third quarter, Heavy Duty sales were only 4.2 per cent below the same period in 2025, a decline of 137 trucks.
September deliveries reached 1,124 Heavy Duty trucks, down 7.9 per cent year-on-year. For the first nine months of 2026, 9,733 Heavy Duty trucks were sold, 830 fewer than during the equivalent period last year and also representing a 7.9 per cent decline. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
The relative strength of Heavy Duty suggests operators undertaking major freight and transport tasks are continuing to replace equipment, even as overall investment becomes more cautious.
Medium Duty takes the biggest hit
Medium Duty has experienced a much sharper contraction.
Only 1,285 Medium Duty trucks were delivered between July and September, down 22.8 per cent – or 293 vehicles – compared with the third quarter of 2025.
Year-to-date performance is weaker again. Just 3,602 Medium Duty trucks had been sold by the end of September, representing a substantial 31.7 per cent decline and a shortfall of 1,674 vehicles compared with the first nine months of last year. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
September provided some improvement relative to that year-to-date performance, although sales were still 10 per cent below September 2025.
Light Duty sales weaken in the third quarter
The Light Duty truck market has also experienced a significant slowdown.
TIC recorded 2,861 Light Duty truck sales during the third quarter, down 29 per cent, or 830 vehicles, from the corresponding quarter last year.
September sales were 19.8 per cent lower year-on-year.
A stronger performance earlier in 2026 has softened the year-to-date decline, with 8,534 Light Duty trucks sold through September, down 13.9 per cent, or 1,379 vehicles. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
For fleets operating in metropolitan delivery, service, construction and council applications, the numbers suggest replacement activity has become considerably more cautious during the second half of the year.
Vans remain relatively resilient
Heavy vans have been the least affected segment during the 2026 downturn.
Year-to-date sales reached 7,364 units, down 7.7 per cent compared with the first nine months of 2025.
Third-quarter sales were 7.8 per cent lower, although September deteriorated further with deliveries down 13.2 per cent compared with September last year. T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
That makes vans, along with Heavy Duty trucks, one of the more resilient parts of the commercial vehicle market this year.
Higher operating costs weigh on replacement decisions
TIC Chief Executive Officer Tony McMullan linked the slowdown to economic conditions affecting both freight demand and the ability of operators to invest in replacement vehicles.
“The new truck market in Australia was already tracking down for much of 2025 and that trend has continued through 2026.”
McMullan said reduced consumer spending was contributing to less freight movement, while higher diesel prices and interest rates were increasing operators’ costs.
“The direct result of these conditions, is less capital to invest in new trucks, trailers and the like, hence the market downturn that we are currently witnessing.”
TIC does not expect a significant turnaround before the end of the year.
“The Truck Industry Council does not anticipate much relief to these factors for the remainder of 2026, however we remain optimistic for a return to stronger new truck sales in 2027.” T-Mark_Q3Comment(September)2026
What the numbers mean for fleets
The 2026 figures tell a more nuanced story than simply a falling truck market.
Heavy Duty demand has remained comparatively resilient, while Medium Duty has experienced a particularly sharp correction. Light Duty sales weakened considerably during the third quarter, while vans have held up better than most segments.
For Fleet Managers, the slowdown may also reflect a period where replacement decisions are receiving greater scrutiny. Higher operating and financing costs make whole-of-life cost, utilisation and replacement timing increasingly important when preparing capital budgets.
It also means the final quarter will be worth watching closely. With 29,233 vehicles already delivered, 2026 remains on course to rank among Australia’s stronger historical truck markets, despite being well behind the exceptional volumes recorded in recent years.
The bigger question will be whether fleets continue to defer replacement into 2027 – or whether ageing assets and accumulated replacement demand eventually provide the catalyst for the stronger sales conditions TIC expects next year.
